Development of a risk-based mine closure cost calculation model

Abstract

The study summarised in this paper focused on expanding existing South African mine closure cost calculation models to provide a new model that incorporates risks, which could have an effect on the closure costs during the life cycle of the mine. This research is important because currently there are a number of mines that do not have sufficient financial provision to close and rehabilitate the mines. The magnitude of the lack of funds could be reduced or eliminated if the closure cost calculation is done in a more risk-orientated manner. The model consists of an expansion of existing closure cost calculation models, by applying the Monte Carlo risk simulation technique to model influences of external and internal change affecting closure costs. It is shown that the proposed risk -based models provides a way to understand better the implications of uncertainty on the closure costs