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Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event

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dc.contributor.author Mpheshea, LE
dc.contributor.author Landman, WA
dc.date.accessioned 2016-10-10T12:45:45Z
dc.date.available 2016-10-10T12:45:45Z
dc.date.issued 2015-09
dc.identifier.citation Mpheshea, L.E. and Landman, W.A., 2015. Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event. In: 31st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015 en_US
dc.identifier.isbn 978-0-620-67825-4
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8792
dc.description 31st Conference of the South African Society for Atmospheric Science, Hennops River Valley, Centurion, South Africa, 21-22 September 2015 en_US
dc.description.abstract A strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to develop during the austral summer. This study seeks to address the two main questions. 1) How strong will the 2016 event be? 2) With how much skill and confidence can a really strong event be predicted? A state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model’s Niño3.4 SST forecast for January 2016 is presented, followed by an evaluation of the model’s ability to have predicted events of similar magnitude in the past. The January forecast, initialized in July 2015, shows a Niño3.4 SST anomaly larger than the 75th percentile of the observed climatological record. Verification over 18 years of Niño3.4 SST hindcasts suggest that such forecasts may be made with high confidence even at several months lead-time. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.publisher SASAS en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Workflow;15735
dc.subject El Niño en_US
dc.subject Coupled model en_US
dc.subject Verification data en_US
dc.title Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event en_US
dc.type Conference Presentation en_US
dc.identifier.apacitation Mpheshea, L., & Landman, W. (2015). Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event. SASAS. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8792 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Mpheshea, LE, and WA Landman. "Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event." (2015): http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8792 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Mpheshea L, Landman W, Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event; SASAS; 2015. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8792 . en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Conference Presentation AU - Mpheshea, LE AU - Landman, WA AB - A strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to develop during the austral summer. This study seeks to address the two main questions. 1) How strong will the 2016 event be? 2) With how much skill and confidence can a really strong event be predicted? A state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere model’s Niño3.4 SST forecast for January 2016 is presented, followed by an evaluation of the model’s ability to have predicted events of similar magnitude in the past. The January forecast, initialized in July 2015, shows a Niño3.4 SST anomaly larger than the 75th percentile of the observed climatological record. Verification over 18 years of Niño3.4 SST hindcasts suggest that such forecasts may be made with high confidence even at several months lead-time. DA - 2015-09 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR KW - El Niño KW - Coupled model KW - Verification data LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2015 SM - 978-0-620-67825-4 T1 - Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event TI - Predicting the extreme 2015/16 El Nino event UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8792 ER - en_ZA


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