Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.
Reference:
Garland, R.M., Matooane, M., Engelbrecht, F.A., Bopape, M.M., Landman, W.A., Naidoo M., van der Merwe, J. and Wright, C.Y. 2015. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, vol, 12(10), p.p. 12577-12604
Garland, R. M., Matooane, M., Engelbrecht, F., Bopape, M. M., Landman, W., Naidoo, M., ... Wright, C. (2015). Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8761
Garland, Rebecca M, M Matooane, FM Engelbrecht, Mary-Jane M Bopape, WA Landman, M Naidoo, J Van der Merwe, and CY Wright "Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health." (2015) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8761
Garland RM, Matooane M, Engelbrecht F, Bopape MM, Landman W, Naidoo M, et al. Regional Projections of Extreme Apparent Temperature Days in Africa and the Related Potential Risk to Human Health. 2015; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/8761.