Downscaled climate change projections over northeastern South Africa: Implications for streamflow

Abstract

The study assesses the impacts of anthropogenic forcing on seasonal streamflows over northeastern South Africa by using both dynamically and statistically downscaled multi-decadal climate change projections. The statistical model approach is to build linear links between observed present-day climate of flows and mid-tropospheric atmospheric circulation and then use the developed relationships to provide guidance on future-climate streamflows. Both CCAM raw runoff (as a proxy for streamflows) and statistically downscaled streamflows indicate a decreasing trend over northeastern South Africa. Statistical analysis on simulated data is done based on four 30-year periods (1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100) from which parametric distributions are calculated and interpreted.