dc.contributor.author |
Beraki, Asmerom F
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|
dc.contributor.author |
De Witt, DG
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|
dc.contributor.author |
Landman, WA
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dc.contributor.author |
Olivier, C
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|
dc.date.accessioned |
2014-06-17T12:54:05Z |
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dc.date.available |
2014-06-17T12:54:05Z |
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dc.date.issued |
2014-02 |
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dc.identifier.citation |
Beraki, A.F, De Witt, D.G, Landman, W.A and Olivier, C. 2014. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI. Journal of Climate, vol. 27, pp |
en_US |
dc.identifier.issn |
0894-8755 |
|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00275.1
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|
dc.identifier.uri |
http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7482
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|
dc.description |
Copyright: 2014 American Meteorological Society. This is an Open Access journal. The journal authorizes the publication of the information herewith contained. Published in Journal of Climate, vol. 27, pp 1719-1741 |
en_US |
dc.description.abstract |
The recent increase in availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources in South Africa allowed the development of an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The ECHAM4.5-South African Weather Service (SAWS) Modular Oceanic Model version 3 (MOM3-SA) is the first OAGCM to be developed in Africa for seasonal climate prediction. This model employs an initialization strategy that is different from previous versions of themodel that coupled the same atmosphere and ocean models. Evaluation of hindcasts performed with the model revealed that the OAGCM is successful in capturing the development and maturity of El Nino and La Nina episodes up to 8 months ahead. A model intercomparison also indicated that the ECHAM4.5-MOM3-SA has skill levels for the Nino-3.4 region SST comparable with other coupled models administered by international centers. Further analysis of the coupled model revealed that La Nina events aremore skillfully discriminated than El Nino events. However, as is typical for OAGCM, the model skill was generally found to decay faster during the spring barrier. The analysis also showed that the coupled model has useful skill up to several-months lead time when predicting the equatorial Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during the period spanning between the middle of austral spring and the start of the summer seasons, which reaches its peak in November. The weakness of the model in other seasons was mainly caused by the western segment of the dipole,which eventually contaminates the dipole mode index (DMI). The model is also able to forecast the anomalous upper air circulations, particularly in the equatorial belt, and surface air temperature in the Southern African region as opposed to precipitation. |
en_US |
dc.language.iso |
en |
en_US |
dc.publisher |
American Meteorological Society |
en_US |
dc.relation.ispartofseries |
Workflow;12415 |
|
dc.subject |
Seasonal forecasting |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Ocean-atmosphere coupled model |
en_US |
dc.subject |
El Niño–Southern Oscillation |
en_US |
dc.subject |
ENSO |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Climate prediction |
en_US |
dc.subject |
Coupled climate model |
en_US |
dc.title |
Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI |
en_US |
dc.type |
Article |
en_US |
dc.identifier.apacitation |
Beraki, A. F., De Witt, D., Landman, W., & Olivier, C. (2014). Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI. http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7482 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.chicagocitation |
Beraki, Asmerom F, DG De Witt, WA Landman, and C Olivier "Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI." (2014) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7482 |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation |
Beraki AF, De Witt D, Landman W, Olivier C. Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI. 2014; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7482. |
en_ZA |
dc.identifier.ris |
TY - Article
AU - Beraki, Asmerom F
AU - De Witt, DG
AU - Landman, WA
AU - Olivier, C
AB - The recent increase in availability of high-performance computing (HPC) resources in South Africa allowed the development of an ocean–atmosphere coupled general circulation model (OAGCM). The ECHAM4.5-South African Weather Service (SAWS) Modular Oceanic Model version 3 (MOM3-SA) is the first OAGCM to be developed in Africa for seasonal climate prediction. This model employs an initialization strategy that is different from previous versions of themodel that coupled the same atmosphere and ocean models. Evaluation of hindcasts performed with the model revealed that the OAGCM is successful in capturing the development and maturity of El Nino and La Nina episodes up to 8 months ahead. A model intercomparison also indicated that the ECHAM4.5-MOM3-SA has skill levels for the Nino-3.4 region SST comparable with other coupled models administered by international centers. Further analysis of the coupled model revealed that La Nina events aremore skillfully discriminated than El Nino events. However, as is typical for OAGCM, the model skill was generally found to decay faster during the spring barrier. The analysis also showed that the coupled model has useful skill up to several-months lead time when predicting the equatorial Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) during the period spanning between the middle of austral spring and the start of the summer seasons, which reaches its peak in November. The weakness of the model in other seasons was mainly caused by the western segment of the dipole,which eventually contaminates the dipole mode index (DMI). The model is also able to forecast the anomalous upper air circulations, particularly in the equatorial belt, and surface air temperature in the Southern African region as opposed to precipitation.
DA - 2014-02
DB - ResearchSpace
DP - CSIR
KW - Seasonal forecasting
KW - Ocean-atmosphere coupled model
KW - El Niño–Southern Oscillation
KW - ENSO
KW - Climate prediction
KW - Coupled climate model
LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za
PY - 2014
SM - 0894-8755
T1 - Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI
TI - Dynamical seasonal climate prediction using an ocean-atmosphere coupled climate model developed in partnership between South Africa and the IRI
UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/7482
ER -
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en_ZA |