Renewable rural electrification: Prediction of sustainability in South Africa. Case study: Wind and solar photo-voltaic with lead acid battery storage

Abstract

A case study methodology and assessment of renewable energy technology and sustainable development is applied to a DME rural village project. Wind, solar and lead acid battery energy storage technologies were used for off-grid electrification. Sustainability was assessed for economic and technological systems. The usable eco-services from wind and solar power have been estimated from projections of wind and solar energy from nature. Capital and operating costs are calculated from project budget. Energy conversion efficiencies and storage capacities are obtained from the specifications and performance of the equipment in use. The outcomes for a renewable energy technology intervention had been predicted by way of a learning model using discipline experts in the fields of economics, sociology, ecosystem sustainability, governance and the physics, and chemistry of energy conversion processes. South African socio-economic commitments for the provision of free basic services have been applied so as to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The Department of Mineral and Energy (DME) and the National Energy Regulator of SA provide the institutional support and establish the cost based demand for all electricity, including renewable energy consumption. Comparison of project outcomes with the sustainability model shows that this renewable village grid is not viable within the South African Sustainable Development Framework. The main reason being that charges for electricity supply costs in village grids are too high for the sustainable development subsidy and the economies of scale for renewable energy supply technologies favour national grids. Although there is growing uncertainty in the eventual costs for new coal and nuclear based electricity, the latest estimates indicate that renewable energy is not viable unless a charge is made for the social cost of carbon.