Population of the LEAP system to model energy futures in South Africa

Abstract

South Africa has ambitious goals for economic and social development, such as halving poverty and reducing unemployment to below 15% by 2014. A government investigation, supported by independent research, indicated that between 2004 and 2014 the average growth rate to achieve these objectives should be about 6% (The Presidency of RSA, 2004). Therefore, South Africa must find ways that are economically, environmentally and socially sustainable to ensure the achievement of these goals. These are to be undertaken against the backdrop of an insatiable global appetite for energy. Security of energy supplies and services are equally necessary for the continued economic growth and development that the country has been enjoying. The primary objectives of this research project is to: (1) utilize a scenario-based approach to identify and examine the major forces driving South Africa’s energy supply and demand from 2005 to 2030, (2) to produce a detailed description of the current status of the energy sector and scenario-based storylines for the future South African energy situation, especially in terms of economic development, energy demand, energy mixes, technological changes and security of global resource availability and supply, (3) to identify and quantify key opportunities and challenges posed by future changes in the supply and demand of energy and natural resources, and those posed by pressures on the environment, (4) to develop an environmental assessment tool, which, in combination with an energy planning model, will provide the government and stakeholders with the necessary understanding of the environmental impacts associated with different energy scenarios and (5) to develop human capacity in the modelling of environmental impacts of the energy sector