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Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario

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dc.contributor.author Mutanga, Shingirirai S
dc.contributor.author Ngungu, M
dc.contributor.author Tshililo, FP
dc.contributor.author Kaggwa, M
dc.date.accessioned 2022-03-14T07:04:43Z
dc.date.available 2022-03-14T07:04:43Z
dc.date.issued 2021-02
dc.identifier.citation Mutanga, S.S., Ngungu, M., Tshililo, F. & Kaggwa, M. 2021. Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario. <i>Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1).</i> http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325 en_ZA
dc.identifier.issn 2279-9028
dc.identifier.issn 2279-9036
dc.identifier.uri https://doi.org/10.4081/jphr.2021.1897
dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325
dc.description.abstract Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub- Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries has shown that, it is vital to monitor the progression of pandemics and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdowns. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of mitigation interventions. The objective of this study was thus to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast COVID-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemic through 'what if' simulations. Design and Methods: This study presents a systems dynamics model (SD) of the COVID-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The development of the SD model in this study is grounded in design science research which fundamentally builds on prior research of modelling complex systems. Results: The SD model satisfactorily replicates the general trend of COVID-19 infections and recovery for South Africa within the first 100 days of the pandemic. The model further confirms that the decision to lockdown the country was a right one, otherwise the country's health capacity would have been overwhelmed. Going forward, the model predicts that the level of infection in the country will peak towards the last quarter of 2020, and thereafter start to decline. Conclusions: Ultimately, the model structure and simulations suggest that a systems dynamics model can be a useful tool in monitoring, predicting and testing interventions to manage COVID-19 with an acceptable margin of error. Moreover, the model can be developed further to include more variables as more facts on the COVID-19 emerge. en_US
dc.format Fulltext en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.relation.uri https://www.jphres.org/index.php/jphres/article/view/1897/752 en_US
dc.source Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1) en_US
dc.subject Covid-19 en_US
dc.subject Susceptible, Exposure, Infective, and Recovery en_US
dc.subject SEIR en_US
dc.subject Systems dynamics en_US
dc.title Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario en_US
dc.type Article en_US
dc.description.pages 8 en_US
dc.description.note Copyright: 2021 The Author(s). This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License. en_US
dc.description.cluster Smart Places en_US
dc.description.impactarea Climate Services en_US
dc.identifier.apacitation Mutanga, S. S., Ngungu, M., Tshililo, F., & Kaggwa, M. (2021). Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario. <i>Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1)</i>, http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325 en_ZA
dc.identifier.chicagocitation Mutanga, Shingirirai S, M Ngungu, FP Tshililo, and M Kaggwa "Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario." <i>Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1)</i> (2021) http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325 en_ZA
dc.identifier.vancouvercitation Mutanga SS, Ngungu M, Tshililo F, Kaggwa M. Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario. Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1). 2021; http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325. en_ZA
dc.identifier.ris TY - Article AU - Mutanga, Shingirirai S AU - Ngungu, M AU - Tshililo, FP AU - Kaggwa, M AB - Background: Many countries in the world are still struggling to control COVID-19 pandemic. As of April 28, 2020, South Africa reported the highest number of COVID-19 cases in Sub- Sahara Africa. The country took aggressive steps to control the spread of the virus including setting a national command team for COVID-19 and putting the country on a complete lockdown for more than 100 days. Evidence across most countries has shown that, it is vital to monitor the progression of pandemics and assess the effects of various public health measures, such as lockdowns. Countries need to have scientific tools to assist in monitoring and assessing the effectiveness of mitigation interventions. The objective of this study was thus to assess the extent to which a systems dynamics model can forecast COVID-19 infections in South Africa and be a useful tool in evaluating government interventions to manage the epidemic through 'what if' simulations. Design and Methods: This study presents a systems dynamics model (SD) of the COVID-19 infection in South Africa, as one of such tools. The development of the SD model in this study is grounded in design science research which fundamentally builds on prior research of modelling complex systems. Results: The SD model satisfactorily replicates the general trend of COVID-19 infections and recovery for South Africa within the first 100 days of the pandemic. The model further confirms that the decision to lockdown the country was a right one, otherwise the country's health capacity would have been overwhelmed. Going forward, the model predicts that the level of infection in the country will peak towards the last quarter of 2020, and thereafter start to decline. Conclusions: Ultimately, the model structure and simulations suggest that a systems dynamics model can be a useful tool in monitoring, predicting and testing interventions to manage COVID-19 with an acceptable margin of error. Moreover, the model can be developed further to include more variables as more facts on the COVID-19 emerge. DA - 2021-02 DB - ResearchSpace DP - CSIR J1 - Journal of Public Health Research, 10(1) KW - Covid-19 KW - Susceptible, Exposure, Infective, and Recovery KW - SEIR KW - Systems dynamics LK - https://researchspace.csir.co.za PY - 2021 SM - 2279-9028 SM - 2279-9036 T1 - Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario TI - Systems dynamics approach for modelling South Africa’s response to COVID-19: A “what if” scenario UR - http://hdl.handle.net/10204/12325 ER - en_ZA
dc.identifier.worklist 25503 en_US


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