A system dynamics approach to understanding the biofuels socio-technical transition

Abstract

Biofuels are renewable energy sources that are alternatives to the current fossil fuels which dominate energy supply systems. Since energy is a domestic necessity and also a factor of production (enabling a variety of services such as transportation, heating, and food production), the widespread production and use of biofuels can facilitate low-carbon, resource-efficient and socially inclusive economic development. However, biofuels do not automatically deliver these development benefits. If managed incorrectly, biomass can be harvested at unsustainable rates, lead to increased emissions and environmental pollution, displace food security and livelihoods, and increase poverty. Therefore, appropriate management and governance will be needed to ensure that the transition towards biofuels is tailored to the local social, economic, and ecological context in order to achieve sustainable development benefits. Responding to this challenge dictates that new concepts and research tools be applied to represent and model the complex nature of biofuels systems. In addition, a multi-level perspective is needed to reveal the scale and levels of hierarchy in the system, and understand the diffusion and market uptake of biofuels. This chapter uses system dynamics tools and a multi-level approach in order to reveal the various factors that will influence the transition to biofuels as part of a new socio-technical system, and to identify components that will regulate the behaviour of the system. Different stages of the biofuels system (biofuel feedstock production, biofuels production, and biofuels market uptake) were analysed using causal loop diagrams in order to identify influencing variables and important regulating feedback loops that determine the systems behaviour. This revealed that the transition to a sustainable biofuels future would require a spectrum of wide-ranging, interrelated changes in technology, markets, social and cultural preference, policy and governance. Due to the complexities and scale of a biofuels transition, a coordinated response from government, business and civil society will be needed support the biofuels transition and reorient development towards a green economy and sustainable development path.