Managing the changing risk of fire in the South African landscape

Abstract

Fires are a natural and common feature of many of South Africa's landscapes. They are necessary for the maintenance of healthy ecosystems and for biodiversity, but they also do extensive damage to crops, plantations, houses and livestock, and are a threat to human life. The risks associated with fires are increasing as development encroaches into fire-prone areas. In addition, these risks may increase with predicted levels of climate change. Our work has three goals: 1. To quantify the nature of the risks associated with vegetation fires 2. To assess how these risks may change in future 3. To develop early-warning systems that will help to reduce or manage these risks.