Optimal dates for assessing long-term changes in tree cover in the semi-arid biomes of South Africa using MODIS NDVI time series (2001-2018)

Abstract

The varying proportions of tree and herbaceous cover in the grassland and savanna biomes of Southern Africa determine their capacity to provide ecosystem services. The asynchronous phenologies e.g. annual NDVI profiles of grasses and trees in these semi-arid landscapes provide an opportunity to estimate percentage tree-cover by determining the period of maximum contrast between grasses and trees. First, a 16-day NDVI time series was generated from MODIS NDVI data, i.e. MOD13A2 16-day NDVI composite data. Secondly, percentage tree-cover data for 100 sample polygons (4 x 4) pixels for areas that have not undergone change in tree cover between 2001 and 2018 were derived using high resolution Google Earth imagery. Next, a time series consisting of the coefficients of determination (R2) for the NDVI/tree-cover linear regression were computed for the 100 polygons. Lastly, a threshold R2 > 0.5 was used to determine the optimal period of the year for mapping tree-cover. It emerged that the narrow period from Julian day 161 to 177 (June 10 to 26) was the most consistent period with R2 > 0.5 in the region. 18 tree-cover maps (2001 to 2018) were generated using linear regression model coefficients derived from Julian day 161 for each year. Kendall correlation coefficient (tau) was used to determine areas of significant (p < 0.05 and p < 0.01) increasing or decreasing trend in tree-cover. Areas (polygons) that showed increasing tree-cover appeared to be more widespread in the trend map as compared to areas of decreasing tree-cover. An accuracy assessment of the map of increasing tree-cover was conducted using Google Earth high resolution images. Out of 330 and 200 mapped polygons verified using p < 0.05 and 0.01 thresholds, respectively, 180 (54% accuracy) and 132 (65% accuracy) showed evidence of tree recruitment. Farm abandonment appeared to have been the most important factor contributing to increasing tree-cover in the region.