A geospatial modelling approach to simulating the impact of future planning policies on the City of Tshwane

Abstract

Many researchers believe that no matter what path a country takes towards economic development the end result will lead to urbanisation. Rapid urban growth will have a major influence on the social, economic and political dialogue over the next few decades. The planning policies that are implemented in cities influence where urban growth will take place. In order for a government to implement effective policies they first need to establish what the possible effects of these policies could be. Land use change models have proven to be effective decision support tools when it comes to determining the effects of planning policies. The aim of this paper is to simulate urban growth for the City of Tshwane over the next 30 years under the Compaction and Densification Strategy policy currently in the process of implementation. This policy aims to reduce the effect of urban sprawl by promoting urban densification. It became clear from the results that the implementation of the Compaction and Densification Strategy could lead to the development of a more compact City of Tshwane. Under the Compaction and Densification Strategy, most of the development will take place within a 25km radius of the Central Business District and around major routes, metropolitan- and urban cores. This leads to most of the development taking place around the existing infrastructure instead of taking place where there is no established infrastructure.